Week 5 Value Drops

We’ve got some decent changes in Fantasy Football power this week.

Randy Moss is no longer a Patriot and has returned to Minnesota. Unfortunately for Moss owners, 2010 Favre is no Brady or Culpepper. I wouldnt expect the miserable numbers of Oakland Moss, but definitely look for a value drop. Favre will find him, and his numbers will go up when they figure each other out and Rice gets back. Moss will provide the deep threat that the Vikings have been lacking, but frankly, I dont think Favre can get it to him anymore. Moss is still a fantasy starter, but dont expect anything astronomical from him as a Viking this season.

This trade also means big changes for the Patriots. Without a solid #1 downfield threat, I have to imagine that the stock of Welker goes way down. Having a slot receiver as your number one can not be a good strategy. How he will perform as a #1 WR going up against the opponent’s best CB will be what makes or breaks the Patriots this year. I see Brady’s stock taking a hit, but the stock for Hernandez, Gostkowski, and Green-Ellis to go up. Two incredible sleepers have arisen from New England in the last 2 days being Danny Woodhead (after a breakout performance in Week 4) and Brandon Tate (a 6-1 receiver who is the likely fill-in for Moss as the deep threat.)

Vick is not going to play Week 5. Kolb is. As was evident in Week 1 and last week against the Redskins, he is not starting material. He is up against the SF defense. The offense will adjust to his style over the week, so he will have a better outing than last week, however, there are many value changes on the Eagles with this change. McCoy goes up (despite a broken rib, he will see all the carries that no longer go to Vick, he will also be a huge underneath passing option), Celek goes up (Kolb looks for the short pass first, Celek is a great option this week). I see the stock of D. Jackson and Maclin both going down. Neither one will see any big looks and both will have to work their magic after the catch if they are going to have any success with Kolb under center.

-andrew

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65 Comments

Filed under General Rambling, Start 'Em & Sit 'Em

65 responses to “Week 5 Value Drops

  1. cgi

    Start S.Holmes first week back?
    S.Holmes
    M.Floyd
    L.Murphy
    D.Bryant
    T.O.

    • I like Floyd and T.O. this week. Floyd has a good matchup, and I think after what T.O. did, he’ll want to continue his streak, and see a lot of action from Palmer. SD is a tough matchup for Murphy, and Dallas could do big things against Tennessee. Holmes is a huge gamble. He is unproven, working with a QB that he is still new with, and playing a tough Minn pass defense. I would wait on him this week and start Dez.

      -andrew

  2. Robert

    I grabbed M. Bush and F. Jackson off the waiver wire. How do you think they will do this week?

    Bush up against SD
    Jackson up against JAX

    Also do you A. Johnson will play this week? I need help at WR.

    • Not big on Bush vs SD. they are decent against the run, and it isnt guaranteed that McFadden is out. F Jackson is my favorite of the 2 pickups. Jax is giving up 100+ per game rushing, and Jackson should see a good increase in carries. Of the two, i’d go with Jackson.

      I havent read any reports against it. I doubt he’d be out for 2 weeks with it. Keep an eye out, but he should play, and should do well.

      -andrew

  3. Scotty

    Is Green-Ellis, CJ Spiller, or Fred Jackson worth picking up and dropping Marion Barber?

    • I made the same move with Green-Ellis in one of my leagues. With no Randy Moss, I have no idea how the Patriots will change their gameplan. But I would imagine Green-Ellis get a boost from it. I’d go with Jackson over Spiller, unless you get return yardage points. Barber is a great back, but get 1/3 of the carries. I expect him to play well this week against Tenn, but he will not consistently put up numbers you are looking for.

      -andrew

  4. James

    Andrew, the Bess suggestion worked like a charm! I chalked up another win thanks to that pickup.

    Anyways, someone in my league picked up Brandon Tate off the FA list before I could get a jump on it (damn Wednesday morning trades). I think he is someone to make a play for due to his upside, and I was considering trading Lance Moore for him. Good trade? I also have Mike Thomas, Demaryius Thomas, Derrick Mason, Dexter McCluster, and the ever-confusing Ricky Williams as other considerations. What do you think?

    • You are welcome. He is terribly underrated. I cant believe his value is so low when he gets targeted that often.

      I do like Brandon Tate, but I wouldnt jump all over him just yet. The smart and seemingly obvious move for NE is to now go out and get a new #1 receiver, because Welker and Edelman are sure not going to step up into that spot, and Tate is not ready for it. I’d stay confident with Moore for right now. Tate has a lot to prove and though his value will go up, I dont think he will be as effective as everyone is hoping.

      -andrew

  5. Wayne

    Hey! Non PPR league, Turner, LT, Bradshaw. All three are beastly. Turner has Cleveland, which as Benson owners saw, could spell trouble for a RB. LT has Min, could be a good game. Bradshaw has Hou, again, could be huge. Do i sit the first round draft pick for Bradshaw and LT. BTW,

    • Hey Wayne,

      Turner is a must. The other two could have good games, but are facing tough defenses. I think NYG will stick to the air more, as Houston has a decent rush DEF. LT at minnesota is also a tough one, but I’d take him over Bradshaw this week.
      I didnt get your BTW… care to enlighten me?

      -andrew

  6. Marc

    PPR/combo league. Kolb or Shaun Hill?

    • Hill this week over Kolb. Kolb will do mostly short passes and SF is a tough DEF that I think will get the win this week. Hill is going against the Rams, so I expect big things out of all the DET skill players.

      -andrew

  7. Mike

    Hey i know im off topic, but should i do this trade? I am giving away Mark clayton an R. Matthews for B. Marshall.

    My WR and HB if i dont do trade.

    WR: A. Boldin, S. Smith(NYG), A. Collie, D. Bryant, M. Clayton, B. Edwards

    HB: P. Hillis, D. Williams, C. Benson, M. Lynch, R. Matthews

    Thank you!

    • Trades are more than fine to talk about. Fantasy advice is fantasy advice.

      I like Mathews as one of your weekly RB starters, but Benson and Lynch have the potential to fill that role. Marshall would boost your WR slot. I say do it.

      This week, I’d start Hillis and Benson at HB and Boldin, Smith, Collie if the trade goes through.

      -andrew

  8. Should I start Pierre Thomas over Jamaal Charles? because if Pierre is healthy, he’ll be starting and running against one of the worst run defenses in the league this week- Arizona.
    Jamaal Charles will be going up against a pretty bad run defense in Indiana but he’s a split back still carrying about 7 yds per carry. Who should I start?

    • Your site is listed as ESPN.com. I’m really hoping that that means you work there and arent just a fan. If so, please love us. We want to get rich and famous and go all Johnny Appleseed across america with our knowledge.
      Pierre Thomas looks like he is OK to go this week against a terrible arizona run defense. But I’m worried about his ankle because he didnt practice yesterday and its getting pretty late. The Saints report that he will play, but I’m iffy on it, he will see a big reduction in carries and could aggravate it at any time.
      Indy is only 5 yards per game worse than Arizona and Charles is increasing his number of carries each week and as you said his yards per carry is incredible.

      Check the status of Thomas before the game. If he looks like he is going to get most of the looks, go with him. If there is any doubt in your mind though, I’d play Charles.

      -andrew

  9. nate

    nah ill listen. If you do good ill follow you every week since i know nothing about football

    Qb
    Rodgers
    Cutler

    Wr
    A Johnson
    bowe
    Knox
    Clayton
    Cribbs
    walter

    Rb
    benson
    Stewart
    Torain
    Green Ellis
    wells

    Te-Clark
    K-Crosby
    Def-New York jets
    Db-Pollard

    Start Qb-2wr-2rb-wr/te-wr/rb

  10. Kevin

    I’m to the point where I know I should drop Tim Hightower and wash my hands of the Arizona offense. The question is that I don’t know who I should go after for long term value for my team since right now I have Arian Foster, Peyton Hills and Pierre Thomas. My biggest concern right now is PT and would like a bit more insurance going forward. I could pick up any of the following RBs.

    BenJarvus Green-Ellis
    Ryan Torrain
    Mike Tolbert
    Marshon Lynch

    I’m leaning towards Green-Ellis or Lynch due to the apparent lead role they hold going forward without an injured player set to come back soon. Can you give me any insight on who your top two pickups would be from this list?

    • Green-Ellis is the star, but will split with Woodhead. He should see increased numbers with Moss gone.
      Torain is a good play. Portis is out for a while, and when he comes back, he will likely not take over the #1 role, but split carries with Torain.
      Tolbert has proven he can still play with Mathews starting. He is their goal line guy, his yardage and carries should go down, but still expect scores.
      Lynch will split with Forsett. See most of the goal line work, but manage to take about half the carries away.

      All 4 are better plays than Hightower.
      My favorites would be Green-Ellis and Torain.

      -andrew

      • Kevin

        Thank you. That gives me a plain for this weekend. I do have a potential emergency looming and your advise gives me a plan of action. I’m going to play a wait and see going into this weekend since the news about Hillis that hit the wire today and with P Thomas still on the questionable list to and extent I may have to go fish this weekend which means I may need Torain. If it looks like Hillis will play then I’ll pull the trigger for Green-Ellis.

        Now if I had a better option for WRs this week. >.< I have D Jackson, T. Owens, A. Collie and P. Harvin. I'm really hoping Collie practice today otherwise I'm looking at 3 wides that have been very inconsistent so far one with a bad matchup and one with a loser of a QB and the other with a QB that is struggling. Not liking my WRs this week. Assuming Hillis starts would there be any value in dropping Hightower for M. Manningham for this weekend to replace one of my WRs and then swapping out for Green-Ellis next week?

        Thanks again for your advise

      • I do like Manningham this weekend. Collie should play though. Dont get too worried. Harvin is actually a good play each week with Moss on the team now, I think his value improves. TO is looking more and more like the #1 guy in Cin. and he should have a good game against Tampa. Jackson has a big problem as long as Kolb is the QB.

        -andrew

      • Kevin

        I agree about Harvin going forward opposite Moss. I’m just concerned about Harvin this week against the Jets. I understand that the player smack talk has Moss burning Revis and Revis burning Moss which leaves Harvin Revis free however the rest of the Jets secondary is still solid and I just don’t know if Harvin will really be able to get the job done against the Jets. If it were any other defense I wouldn’t hesitate about starting Harvin it’s just the Jets and there ability to shutdown WRs that have me worried. Just to clarrify you would play Collie, Owens and Harvin even if I could get Manningham or would he somehow fit into the mix assuming Collie plays. I’m assuming I should grab him in place of Collie given the Kolb question should bad news turn up about Collie. I hope you are right about Collie. He has been my solid WR.

      • If Collie plays, he’ll be golden this week.
        I stand by Harvin having a good week. Moss has drawn so much attention this week that the Vikes will be amped. Harvin excels as a #2 back or playing from the slot. He’ll improve greatly over the year, starting this week. Manningham does have a fantastic matchup, but i’d have to think that Smith and Nicks will receive most of the receptions, yards and TDs against HOU.
        I have preached this to others, if you dont believe what I say, and you are questioning it this much. The best advice I can give you is to go with your gut. Come game day, if there are injuries or second thoughts, go with what your instincts say to do.

        -andrew

  11. Ralph

    Hey Andrew thx for the help last week i won with still one player remaining great feeling watching mnf without stressing.
    Hopefully i can snag another W this week playing my brother and have some bye week trouble here is the current line up. PPR League btw… no return yards.

    QB Brees
    WR Austin Collie
    WR Donald Driver
    WR Mario Manningham
    RB Pierre Thomas
    RB Cendric Benson
    T/E Dallas Clark
    W/R Micheal Bush
    Def Carolina

    Bench
    Braylon Edwards
    Jason Snelling
    Dexter Mccluster

    On the def we have St.Louis, Tennessee, Cincinnati all available on wire… who are you top picks on Def, this week?

    • I love that feeling. I’m glad you got you win. Lets work on getting you another.

      I wouldnt change your lineup, I do advice you to watch Thomas closely though, because he didnt practice yesterday. The Saints say that he will play Sunday, but keep an eye out just to be careful.
      Defensively, I’d go with Cincy against Tampa this week. They should see some good things. I picked up STL, but as the week goes on i’m starting to get hesitant about it.

      Good luck again.

      -andrew

      • Ralph

        thaks just got cincy but its official now thomas is out i have a choice of Snelling of Mccluster Also Collie is now probable and might have to play Edwards. What do you recommend?

      • Snelling and McCluster are terrible options. Snelling is the better of the two as long as your league isnt return yards.
        Collie is looking like a no, so best of luck with Edwards.

        -andrew

  12. jonathan

    Who i must start between M.Schaub and S.Bradford?
    Do Schaub will get is numbers against good pass defense this week?
    Can Bradford surprise with one of the league most dreadful defensive team?

    • I think Foster will be the main man for Houston this week. The Giants are definitely a good defensive team, and I’d have a hard time sitting someone like Schaub, but if you are going to do it, this week is the week. Bradford, as you said, is going against a terrible defense. And, I honestly think this could result in a shoot-out. I’d go with Bradford. And think of the look on your opponents face when he gets beat by the rookie in St Louis this week.

      -andrew

  13. Justin

    can start one. flex.

    S. Holmes (vs Min)
    K. Walter (vs NYG)
    J. Knox (vs Car)
    D. Bowe (vs Ind)
    J. Gaffney (vs Bal)

    starting 3 wrs are

    C. Johnson
    G. Jennings
    M. Colston

    • I think Walter is my favorite from this list. Knox is the only one with a winnable matchup, but Cutler is out this week, so I’d steer clear. Holmes cant be trusted yet, Bowe wont see a lot against Indy, Gaffney is the 4th best receiver on Denver and playing the top passing DEF in the league. You dont have any RBs to choose from for Flex?

      -andrew

  14. Hey Andrew, read your post and putting my trust in you.

    Who should i start in week 5?

    I Need 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF, 1 TE.

    This is a must win week for me and would like to put in the top scorers you think will rake in the points.

    I REALLY NEED THIS WIN.

    My lineup:

    QB –
    Phillip Rivers (@OAK)
    Kyle Orton (@BAL)

    RB –
    Ray Rice (@DEN)
    Cedric Benson (@TB)
    Beanie Wells (@NO)
    Shonn Greene (@MIN)
    Tim Hightower (@NO)

    WR –
    Santonio Holmes (@MIN)
    Santana Moss (@GB)
    Eddie Royal (@BAL)
    Marques Colston (@ARI)

    K-
    Sebastian Janikowski

    DEF –
    Tennessee Titans (@DAL)
    Atlanta Falcons (@CLE)

    • That is a great decision. The trust part. I’m awesome.

      QB-Rivers
      WR-Moss, Colston (dont expect much)
      RB- Benson, Rice
      Flex- Wells
      TE-You didnt list any, so whoever you have, for your sake i hope its Gates or Finley.
      K-Janikowski
      DEF-Atlanta. Drop Tennessee, no use having two DEFs.

      This is the smartest line up for you. Your WRs are lacking, perhaps find the team with the worst QB in your league and trade Orton (or Rivers) for a solid #1 or 2 receiver. Check back in and i’ll give you some trade advice.
      Also, Check out this post: https://godhateslosers.wordpress.com/2010/09/27/andrews-shuffling-defense-strategy/ to read about my defensive strategy. It should help you in the long run.

      -andrew

  15. OH. i have Jason Witten as a TE btw

  16. gator0424

    have an opportunity to pick up Brandon Marshall. Who should I drop to get him. Colston or Floyd?

    • Youre telling me right now that Marshall is sitting in the FA market? Are you in like a 4 team league or something? Even then, that is a little crazy.
      Colston is less consistent and kind of a headache this year. I’d drop him if it has to be one of those 2.

      -andrew

  17. BWYATT

    WR3:
    Roy Williams (DAL)
    Johnny Knox
    Legedu Naanne
    Mike Sims-Walker (hard not to want to put him in against Buffalo…)

    WR/RB flex:
    one of the above
    Beanie Wells
    Johnathan Stewart

    Thanks for your advice!!

    • Buffalo is actually dangerous against the pass. They have a good CB that is going up against MSW this week. Also, teams are usually beating up on the Bills and dont have to pass the ball past the 2nd quarter.

      That being said… I still take MSW this week. Naanee has a good first week and not much else. Knox is without his starting QB. and R. Williams will likely go back into hiding until 2014 when he will have his next good game.

      Flex would be Wells, its a gamble with a new QB in and they will be zoning in on him, but I think he’ll handle it against a bad rush DEF.

      good luck, hope to see you back.

      -andrew

  18. James

    There are three WRs in FA that have piqued my interest: Kenny Britt, Steve Johnson, and Danny Amendola.

    Of my lower-tier WRs, I have Mike Thomas, Derrick Mason, Demariyus Thomas, and Dexter McCluster.

    Which one of the FAs should I go for (if any), and which one of my current bench WRs is ripe for the switch?

    • James

      Also, Danny Woodhead is in FA as well. I forgot to add him into the mix.

    • I just made a fart noise with my mouth.

      Amendola is a good play if you are in a return points league. Britt will see some work, but he is a #2 or 3 receiver on an unimpressive passing team. Steve Johnson isnt even a starter for the Bills. The Buffalo Bills. Yeah, Johnson has scored in the last 2 games. But I would only recommend any of these three players if you were in a 14 team league and all of your WRs somehow got pneumonia or the black lung or something.
      Youve obviously got some good starters and a pretty deep bench, so if you feel frisky, you are safe to make any of these moves. Mason is your strongest, then D. Thomas, M Thomas, and McCluster. I’d rank the ones in FA as Johnson, Amendola, Britt.
      This week (and only this week) Johnson and Amendola will outperform both Thomases and McCluster.

      This has been a confusing response from me, and I apologize. What I’m saying is, if you want to replace crappy bench WRs with crappy FA WRs, it doesnt really matter, because you’ll never start them anyways. Go for it. Johnson for McCluster. Amendola for M Thomas.

      -andrew

  19. Justin

    different team.. new question. P. Thomas out. i can start 2 wrs or 1 wr 1 rb..

    mike williams (tb)
    J. Maclin
    Shonn Greene
    K. Walter
    Breaston (but he probably out for a few weeks)
    McCluster
    J. Shockey
    R. Williams

    starters now

    schaub
    D. jackson
    Hakeem Nicks
    Ray Rice
    J. Finley
    plus the 2 u pick which is for w/t and w/r spots

    • Justin

      R williams is roy williams

    • Walter should be a pretty nice play this week. Its a tough matchup, but J Jones is out, and Johnson is still dealing with that ankle.

      Your other spot could get a bit messy, but i think your starters have it covered. I think Maclin is a gamble with Kolb at QB. And Mike Williams is getting a ton of action in TB, but playing a decent Bengals defense. If you are feeling like a gambler, go with Williams. He’s got the upside.

      -andrew

  20. gator0424

    Pick one to start:
    Best
    McCoy
    D. Williams

  21. Brian

    my team is:

    qb- romo
    wr- austin
    wr- boldin
    wr- driver
    rb- turner
    rb- hightower
    te- zach miller
    w/r/t- Fred Jackson
    w/r/t- Lance More

    bench- crabtree, ronnie brown, malcolm floyd, davone bess, golden tate, bernard scott, ivory, and orton.

    Should I keep the lineup like I have it or try to get floyd or crabtree in there as my flex?

    • I like your lineup. My only change would be switching Ivory and Hightower. P. Thomas is ruled out this week, and Ivory will get about 50% of the carries. Hightower is going downhill fast, and the replacement QB is not helping things in ARI.

      Crabtree is a no for me until SF proves they can go vertical. Floyd is not someone I would want on my bench though. So have a little debate in your head about switching him with F Jackson.

      -andrew

  22. jonathan

    who i must start between Felix jones and B.Jackson for this week and who will be the most valuable players for the rest of the year?

    • B Jackson is not a good looking player. At all. For all the hype he had, he has proven to be a huge bust. There is a minimal chance that he can turn it around. (Fun fact: Rodgers has 50% more yards per carry and twice as many rushing TDs as Jackson.)
      F. Jones is off to a slow start, and will probably not be the official starter at all this year. But he will see more carries as the year goes on, and lead the Cowboys is rushing yards. He is always capable of changing the game.
      I like Jones this week and every week over B. Jackson.

      -andrew

  23. Chad H

    I’ve been waiting for the advice thread all week and just realized that it was here in the value drops section. Anyways I am desperate for advice( you were spot on the last time I asked your advice)

    Can start 2 hbs, 2 wrs and 1 flex hb/wr. Had planned to go turner and Mathews at hb. My question is should I go 3 hbs and add deangelo or sit him and go 3 wrs with Jennings, Boldin and Djax. And if I go only two wrs which 2.

    Once again I love the site and am telling everyone I know ( that is not in my league )

    • sorry friend. pretty much post your question anywhere, we’ll get to them. As you can see, the comments are all over the place.
      Glad my advice worked for you last week, I like to think this is something i’m better at than most.

      I’m not a huge fan of D. Williams this week. He’s playing a great rush defense, however, with the rookie qb and smith not playing, he has potential to get a ton of carries. i still dont think he’ll do that great.
      Mathews and Turner at RB
      Jennings and Boldin at WR
      I’d stick with D Jackson at your Flex. He is a rough play with Kolb under center, but he is still an elite receiver playing a middle of the road pass defense.

      Thanks for spreading the word.

      -andrew

  24. MIke

    QB- Kolb, Sanchez or Pick up hill?

    Wr-PIck 2- A.jhonson, Brandon Lloyd, MIke Willaims(TB), Jabar Gaffney

    RB- Pick 2- D.williams, Matt Forte, Ryan Torain, MIcheal BUsh.

    Thanks for your Help.
    Should I pick up anyone?

    • I like hill this week, of the 2 you have, I’d take sanchez.

      WR. Johnson and Lloyd (Make sure Johnson is healthy and ready to go)
      RB. Forte and Torain.

      I think you’ll have an alright week, no elite players, but none of them are bad starts.

      -andrew

  25. MIke

    MIke WIllaims(TB), Jabar Gaffney, Micheal Bush or D.willaims

    Flex?

    • sorry i couldnt get to you. out of town for the weekend. hopefully you scanned through the comments and went with m williams or bush as i had suggested to others.
      let us know how you did tuesday morning.

      -andrew

  26. James

    Thanks for your above insight on my WR question. You know what, you’re right about the crappiness of my bench WR’s….it’s a good thing I have great starters to balance it out.

    I have a dilemma, however….I have Ricky Williams. I can’t tell if he is worth starting each week or worth riding the pine (which he did last week). I am considering trading him for Ryan Torain, who won’t be sharing carries like Williams for at least 4-6 weeks. Yet, Torain is injury prone, and Williams has the potential to come back to starter form (like he did last week). Would you make that trade if you had him on your roster? Torain’s upside looks really good, but I’m still not convinced that Williams won’t bring his potential to my roster. As always, thanks in advance, fantasy guru.

    • Hope i’m not coming in to late here. you definitely have great starters, but have to be looking ahead a little toward bye weeks. i dont really trust torain that much, as is evident in his performance against a pretty crap running defense in Indy.
      Williams isnt exactly an every week starter for me, but I would stick with him. The problem with Washington is not their running backs, its not torain, it wasnt portis. the problem is their O-Line.

      -andrew

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